Hedging Currency Risks

The exchange rate of the Macedonian Denar against the major hard currencies of the world has remained stable in recent years. Due to the restrictions of the IMF, the "local Narodna (Central) Bank does not print money and there is no physical dinars in the economy and local banks. Thus, even if people want to buy foreign currency on the black market, or directly banks – which do not have to do with dinars. The total amount of dinars (M1, in professional financing lingo) in the economy is around 200 million dollars, according to official figures. This means $ 100 per capita. Thus, while all citizens of Macedonia decided to convert all your dinars to Deutsch Marks – they still can buy only 150 DM each, on average. These small quantities are not sufficient to raise the rate at DMS which are exchanged for dinars (= the price in dinars DMS). But this situation will last forever? According to the paucity of economic theory raises rare commodity prices.

If dinars are rare – their price will remain high in DM terms, ie not be devalued against the stronger currency. The longer the Central Bank does not print dinars – the longer the kind of change will continue. But a strong currency (the dinar, in this case) is not always a positive thing. The dinar is not strong because Macedonia is rich. The country is in a problematic economic situation. The banking system is dangerous and unstable. Foreign exchange reserves are minimal – less than $ 30 million.